If a completed Dow Theory buy signal and new bull market were not to follow some future capitulation, then you would be partially invested in what would be a failed upturn. In that case, if the markets then were to go on to new lows on two of the three indices, selling out of the position would be indicated into that continuing bear market. But this has not happened over the last 50 years.
Note 1. At the time of the signal, the DJTA was “seriously” diverging by 8.1% so I only acted on half the new signal and waited on the final half for the DJTA to confirm; consequently the sell was adjusted to midway between the new and the old signal levels for a 454.72 average cost and only a 1.1% better price level. When the Transports have to move as much as 8 to 10%, I would wait on half for confirmation.
在《Dow Theory for the 21st Century》中,作者Jack Schannep提出了一个指标可以预测熊市底部,基本原理是计算三大指数(道琼斯工业指数、道琼斯运输业指数、标普500指数)与10周时间加权平均(ten-week time-weighted average,TWA10)的差,若差低于-10%则标记。作者没有公开具体的算法,但是提到可以使用50天指数移动平均(EMA50)来近似TWA10来达到相似的效果。代码以富途牛牛脚本编写,如下:
PERCENT =EMA(CLOSE,50) / CLOSE;LAST_PERCENT =REFV(LAST_PERCENT,1);NEXT_PERCENT =REFXV(NEXT_PERCENT,1);DRAWICON(LAST_PCT <1.1 AND PCT >=1.1, C*0.98,1);DRAWICON(PCT >=1.1 AND NEXT_PCT <1.1, C*0.98,2);