在《Dow Theory for the 21st Century》中,Schannep对传统的Dow Theory进行了改进。根据作者在书中提出的理论,结合书及网站上的回测记录,发现了一些需要注意的地方。
Capitulation买入
书中提到,首次出现Capitulation信号后,买入25%,在随后的反弹并首次出现3%以上回调时买入25%,最后在道氏理论信号发出买入信号后买入50%。
网站上修改了建仓/加仓的比例,Capitulation时买入50%,道氏理论发出信号时买入最后的25%。
Capitulation的止损
If a completed Dow Theory buy signal and new bull market were not to follow some future capitulation, then you would be partially invested in what would be a failed upturn. In that case, if the markets then were to go on to new lows on two of the three indices, selling out of the position would be indicated into that continuing bear market. But this has not happened over the last 50 years.
书中作者提到,如果capitulation之后没有出现牛市,那么初始的建仓需要在创新低后止损,但是作者后面也提到在过去50年中并未出现这种情况。结合回测记录,作者并未进行任何止损。
另一种牛市信号
除了传统的底底高+顶顶高的牛市信号,作者认为只要上涨超19%就进入牛市,这个定义可以在市场从底部V反且没有明显回调时更早发出信号。
另外,在仔细观察回测记录就会发现,1971/9/7也发出了一个买入信号,该信号在3个指数相对最近的次要趋势创新高时发出,此时DJI为916.47点。结合3个指数当时的走势,可以看到DJI随后下跌13%。而书上的买点相对靠后,在1972/1/12年DJT上破时买入,此时DJI为910.82点。
其他差异
在1957/10/22市场相对底部出现后的买入信号,书上和网站的信号分别为1957/11/29及1958/4/21。造成这种差异的可能原因是1957/11/29,DJT为103.97,离前高1957/10/23 113.16相差约8.1%。差异太大,导致书和网站采取了两种截然不同方式。
根据书119页,
Note 1. At the time of the signal, the DJTA was “seriously” diverging by 8.1% so I only acted on half the new signal and waited on the final half for the DJTA to confirm; consequently the sell was adjusted to midway between the new and the old signal levels for a 454.72 average cost and only a 1.1% better price level. When the Transports have to move as much as 8 to 10%, I would wait on half for confirmation.
1957/11/29,DJI与S&P 500上破时建仓50%,1958/5/6 DJT上破时加仓50%,平均入场点位454.72。
网站上,作者干脆推迟确认,在1958/4/21,3个指数均上破时满仓,入场点位450.72。
其他未给出的信号
Signal | Date | DJI | % | Status | Date | DJT | % | Date | S&P 500 | % |
1960/9/28 | 569.08 | Market Low | 9/29 | 123.37 | 9/28 | 52.48 | ||||
10/14 | 596.48 | +4.8% | Bounce | 10/14 | 127.62 | 3.5% | 10/14 | 54.86 | 4.5% | |
10/25 | 566.05 | -5.1% | New Low/Pullback/New Low | 10/25 | 123.51 | -3.2% | 10/25 | 52.20 | -4.8% | |
11/7 | 597.63 | Breakup | 11/3 | 127.88 | 11/4 | 54.96 | ||||
Buy-2 | 11/4 | 596.07 |
其他疑问
1972/4-1972/7,有一个Sell-2型信号(DJI与DJT确认),书和网站均未给出。
1972/7-1972/11,有一个Buy-1型信号(DJI与S&P 500确认),书和网站均未给出。
按照传统理论,上述2个信号因为DJI和DJT未相互确认,所以不会发出,此时市场被认为趋势延续。可能的解释是DJT走势与DJI、S&P 500的走势差别太大,所以信号有效性存疑,这可能也是1957年底延迟买入的原因。